Bear market extremes in 2100 may fluctuate sharply in September-seaway

Bear market extremes in 2100 points in September the market is likely to fluctuate sharply in the market is not the lowest point of the bear market in the first two articles, the author from a number of angles to determine the 2638 point is not the bear market lows. This period from the perspective of the average line to do additional instructions. Short period of economic business cycle is 40 months, the stock market average 800 days, so the selection of William · 100, 200, house 400, 800, 1600, 3200 day moving average system, observe the market from another angle operation. Recalling the history of A shares, in addition to 1664 points, the stock index is in the above average moving flat after a wave of bull market: 1, January 1996, at the end of the year, the 400 antenna in the vicinity of 660 points. 2, at 1047 on May 1999, the 400 antenna in the vicinity of the level of 1220 points. 3, at 998 on June 2005, the 1600 antenna in the vicinity of the level of 1580 points. 4, the first half of 2014, the 400 antenna in the vicinity of the level of 2140 points (see below). 5, when the market fell to 2638 points in January, the position of the 1600 day moving average at the point of 2686 and is flat. (see chart), therefore, from the historical law, the 2638 point as the lowest point of the bear market is unlikely. The projections, the current bear market lowest point of extreme value at around 2100 points (not necessarily to), there are three main reasons: 1, review the history of the stock index appeared in a total of 7 wave bear market, fall was 73% (386), 79.14% (325), 51.33% (512), 32.12% (1043 point), 55.54% (998), 72.83% (1664), 46.84% (1849). As a result of more than 70% of the decline in the market will be lower than the lowest point of 1849, the possibility is very small (see below). The remaining, with the largest decline of 55.54%, the current bear market lows of 2300 points. The average amplitude of 7 wave adjustment is 58.68%, which is about 2139. At the end of July 2014 2, the bull market was officially launched in July 28th the first gap 2127-2135. 3, in the classification of several types of waves, if the tentative point of 5178 to for the wave of A, down by 2328 points, the magnitude of 44.96%. 3684 points as a starting point for C, according to the proportion of C=A estimates, also fell 2328 points, it is necessary to the point of 1356, to be ruled out. Down 44.96%, to 2027. In addition, analysis of Dean level a master of domestic technology, put forward due to the economic development of the long-term upward, as a barometer, at the bottom of the bear market will not fall in a bear market bottom average cost method. His calculation method is as follows: June 25, 2013 stock index bottomed 1849 points, as the bear market bottom in 2013, the average cost of the market can be calculated according to two methods (high + low + closing price 3), or (high + low + closing price *2) 4. 2013 stock index is the highest price of 2444 points, the lowest price of 1849 points, closing price of 2115 points. Sure;相关的主题文章: